A year ago, President Vladimir Putin proudly commemorated the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s triumph in the Battle of Kursk, one of World War II’s most decisive and celebrated moments. Standing on a stage in the Kursk region, Putin hailed the victory as “one of the great feats of our people,” addressing an audience that included soldiers fresh from fighting in Ukraine. It was a moment designed to evoke national pride and underscore Russia’s military prowess.
Fast forward to today, and Kursk is back in the spotlight, but for reasons that cast a shadow over Putin’s once-unquestioned authority. On August 6, Ukrainian forces launched a surprise offensive into the Kursk region, seizing villages, capturing hundreds of Russian soldiers, and forcing the evacuation of tens of thousands of civilians. The speed and success of Ukraine’s advance caught Russia off guard, and the Kremlin has been scrambling to respond ever since.
Putin, known for his measured and often slow responses to crises, has downplayed the severity of the Ukrainian incursion. At an August 12 televised meeting with his security staff, he appeared visibly uneasy as the acting regional governor began listing the settlements lost to Ukrainian forces. Putin quickly cut him off, referring to the situation in Kursk as a “provocation” rather than acknowledging the full extent of the crisis.
However, the events in Kursk are just the latest in a series of setbacks for Putin’s regime. Two and a half years after launching a war in Ukraine under the pretext of removing a perceived threat to Russia, the conflict has instead revealed cracks within his own country. The Russian military, once considered a formidable force, has struggled to repel Ukraine’s battle-hardened units, and the Kremlin’s response has been to purge Defense Ministry officials. Corruption charges have been leveled against high-ranking officers, and lower-level commanders are being arrested on fraud charges, including Lt. Col. Konstantin Frolov, a decorated airborne brigade commander.
While state-controlled media continues to rally public support for Putin, the mood among Russia’s elites—the very foundation of his power—appears to be shifting. According to Ekaterina Schulmann, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, these elites are in a state of “unhappy compliance.” They have grown increasingly disillusioned with the status quo, questioning whether Putin remains an asset or has become a liability.
“The calculation that’s going on in their heads 24/7 is whether the status quo is to their advantage or not,” Schulmann said. The war has certainly enriched some within Putin’s inner circle, but Western sanctions have limited their ability to enjoy their wealth, leading to growing dissatisfaction.
Nigel Gould-Davies, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, echoes this sentiment, noting that Russia’s elites are discontented with the current state of affairs but are fearful of the potential consequences of a leadership struggle. They may be hoping that Putin’s response to the Kursk incursion follows a familiar pattern: initially slow to react, but eventually prevailing.
The situation in Kursk, coupled with the broader discontent among Russia’s elites, signals a moment of reckoning for Putin. The Kremlin’s tacit approval of a wide-ranging purge within the Defense Ministry suggests that internal power struggles are intensifying. Meanwhile, criminal cases are being launched against other officials, and land is being confiscated from some of Russia’s wealthiest individuals in a posh area outside Moscow—actions that underscore the regime’s growing desperation to maintain control.
Putin’s leadership has long been defined by his ability to navigate crises and emerge unscathed. But with Ukraine’s bold offensive into Kursk and the growing unease among his inner circle, the question now is whether he can continue to do so. As Russia prepares to mark the 81st anniversary of the Battle of Kursk, the nation finds itself grappling with a very different kind of battle—one that may determine the future of Putin’s presidency and Russia’s place in the world.
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