Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third consecutive term has already garnered significant attention and congratulations from world leaders. Yet, among the many messages, one stands out for its geopolitical implications: the congratulatory note from Taiwan's newly elected president, Lai Ching-te. Modi's warm reciprocation to President Lai marks a significant step in India’s evolving foreign policy, signaling a bold stance against China's regional hegemony.
Modi's response to Lai highlights India's expanding "Act East" policy and a broadened understanding of the "Indo-Pacific" region. This policy shift is not merely a strategic recalibration; it represents a calculated move to counterbalance China's aggressive posturing. Historically, India's focus extended to East Africa and the Malacca Strait. However, recent engagements, including port calls in the Philippines and Papua New Guinea, and a deliberate pursuit of closer ties with Taiwan, demonstrate New Delhi's intent to expand its influence from the Malacca Strait to the Taiwan Strait.
The Galwan Valley clash in 2020, which severely strained Indo-China relations, serves as a backdrop to this strategic pivot. Since then, India's diplomatic and economic engagements with Taiwan have notably increased. Taiwan's exports to India surged by 13 percent last year, and nearly 200 Taiwanese businesses have invested in India as of February 2024. This burgeoning relationship underscores a mutual recognition of shared geopolitical interests and a collective resolve to counter Chinese dominance.
While India has yet to officially recognize Taiwan as a sovereign nation—a status acknowledged by only 12 countries—there is a clear trajectory towards deeper unofficial ties. This burgeoning alliance is mutually beneficial. Taiwan seeks international support and collaboration with regional powers like India to deter Chinese aggression. From India’s perspective, fostering closer ties with Taiwan is a strategic move to exert pressure on China from both its western and eastern flanks.
Taiwan's President Lai Ching-te’s outreach to Modi reflects Taiwan's urgent need for robust international alliances. As Shen, a geopolitical analyst, aptly points out, Taiwan and India share a common geopolitical interest in curbing China’s expansionist ambitions. The potential for cooperation between the two nations is substantial, encompassing economic, technological, and defense sectors.
Critics may argue that India’s closer ties with Taiwan could provoke China and exacerbate regional tensions. However, Modi’s approach demonstrates a nuanced understanding of realpolitik. By strengthening ties with Taiwan, India not only reinforces its strategic autonomy but also signals to Beijing that its territorial and economic ambitions will be met with robust countermeasures.
Furthermore, this alliance serves as a clarion call to other democracies in the region and beyond. It underscores the importance of collective action and mutual support in the face of authoritarian expansionism. As India and Taiwan deepen their ties, they set a precedent for other nations to follow, fostering a network of alliances that can collectively counterbalance China’s influence.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third term is off to a strategically assertive start. By engaging Taiwan and broadening the scope of its Indo-Pacific policy, India is not only safeguarding its national interests but also contributing to regional stability. This diplomatic maneuver is a testament to Modi’s vision of a resilient and strategically autonomous India, ready to lead and collaborate in an increasingly multipolar world. As India and Taiwan forge a path of cooperation, they illuminate a vital route for other nations to uphold democratic values and counter authoritarian threats.
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