The landscape of American voting has undergone a dramatic shift, with early and mail-in voting becoming the primary method for most voters since 2020. The record-breaking 154.6 million Americans who voted in the 2020 election used nontraditional voting methods, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
Democrats have traditionally dominated mail-in voting requests and returns, as evidenced by Election Lab’s data from 2020 and 2024. During the 2020 election, Democrats held more than a two-to-one lead in mail-in ballot returns across 18 states that register voters by party affiliation, with 11 million Democrats voting by mail compared to 5.1 million Republicans by late October.
For the 2024 election, data from Election Lab shows a similar pattern: out of 47 million mail-in ballots requested across 25 states, Democrats lead Republicans by a margin of 5 million to 3.6 million, with another 2.4 million ballots cast by non-partisan voters. Despite the Democrats’ significant advantage, the data does indicate that the gap has narrowed slightly from 2020 levels. Election integrity advocates argue that this data suggests both parties are now investing more in encouraging mail-in voting, though many conservatives remain skeptical about its security.
Conservatives have called for a return to Election Day voting or stricter regulations on mail-in ballots to restore voter confidence. High-profile cases, such as voting discrepancies and ballot-harvesting allegations from 2020, fuel these concerns and underscore the ongoing debate over election security. Critics of expansive mail-in voting argue that the trend may prioritize convenience over accountability, pushing for reforms like stricter ID requirements, limits on absentee ballots, and signature verification measures.
In battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia, the challenge of tracking early and mail-in voting trends by party affiliation is compounded by state policies that do not require party registration. Unlike states with party registration, these battlegrounds do not provide a clear breakdown of early or mail-in votes by party, making it difficult to predict how early turnout will affect the final results.
Republicans argue that the lack of detailed party registration data could mask potential irregularities. Election analysts also note that these differences make it challenging to compare early voting patterns with past elections accurately, as the data set varies in both the number of states and the number of registered voters with declared affiliations. While Democrats hold a lead in mail-in ballots requested in 2024, some conservatives caution that early data is not always predictive of the final election outcome, urging traditional in-person turnout on Election Day as critical to achieving electoral success.
Despite Republican concerns, data suggests that nontraditional voting methods are becoming increasingly entrenched. Pew Research Center’s analysis of the 2022 midterms shows a continuation of this trend, with over a third of voters casting ballots by mail and another fifth voting early. The transition to these methods may be partially due to states expanding early voting options during the COVID-19 pandemic — a policy shift that has largely continued even in the post-pandemic era. The growing acceptance of mail-in and early voting across all states poses significant challenges for Republicans who have long championed in-person voting as a safeguard against fraud.
For Republicans, the stakes in 2024 are high. With mail-in and early voting numbers expected to play a substantial role in the outcome, both parties are mobilizing to encourage their voters to participate. In 2020, Election Lab reported that Republicans held a slight edge over Democrats in early ballots cast across 10 states, with 2.3 million Republican votes versus 2.2 million Democratic votes by late October. But for conservatives, the numbers tell only part of the story. Election integrity concerns loom large, with many questioning whether mail-in voting and ballot drop boxes can be securely managed at scale.
The shift in voting habits has prompted conservative leaders and organizations to advocate for election reform. Many argue that reducing mail-in voting, establishing stricter ID requirements, and limiting early voting periods would improve election security. Grassroots efforts have also emerged to encourage voters to go to the polls on Election Day, seen as the gold standard for transparent, secure elections.
Groups like the Heritage Foundation have championed these reforms, insisting that they are essential to preserving the democratic process. The organization has called for limiting absentee ballots to those with verified needs, such as military personnel or those unable to reach polling places due to disabilities. Similarly, conservative organizations argue that the expansion of mail-in and early voting is often pushed by Democrats to give their base an electoral advantage, though this remains a contentious point across the aisle.
As the 2024 election approaches, the shift towards mail-in and early voting methods shows no sign of slowing down. Democrats have fully embraced these options as a means of increasing voter turnout, while Republicans continue to stress the importance of in-person voting to protect election integrity. With nearly half of voters in the 2022 midterms using nontraditional methods and similar numbers expected in 2024, the conversation around how Americans vote is more urgent than ever.
For conservatives, this shift raises pressing questions about the integrity of America’s election process. While mail-in and early voting have grown in popularity, Republicans remain committed to restoring the tradition of Election Day voting and ensuring that each ballot is cast and counted with maximum transparency and security. As Republicans work to energize their base for in-person turnout, the battle over voting methodology could play a pivotal role in determining the 2024 election’s outcome — and the future of America’s electoral process.
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